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Internet and communications expert Liu Xing Liang, president of software research and development firm Soften.cn., shares six hot industry trends in 2010 with Interfax.
1. Micro-blogging
Twitter, the most well known micro-blog on the Internet, has become one of the most popular Web sites in the world. Micro-blogging has become a trend among celebrities and businesses alike, so much so that even government agencies like the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) have incorporated micro-blogging as part of their official communications platforms. Leading micro-blog sites in China include Sina, Sohu and NetEase.
Micro-blogging has become immensely popular in China, as it has throughout the rest of the world, and Sina blogs are often cited in the mass media.
The function will be a hot spot for innovation and investment in the short term and become an essential part of major websites in 2010 and in the near future, a Web site lacking a micro-blog function will no longer be considered as a large or medium-sized Web site.
2. Cloud Computing
Cloud computing is a way of computing, via the Internet, by sharing resources instead of using software or storage on a local computer. It is an outgrowth of the ease-of-access to remote computing sites provided by the Internet.
The term cloud is used as a metaphor for the Internet, based on the cloud drawings used in computer network diagrams to depict the Internet and its underlying infrastructure. Typical cloud computing providers deliver common business applications **** which are accessed from a web browser, while the software and data are stored on servers.
Clouds have five essential characteristics: on-demand self-service, broad network access, resource pooling, rapid elasticity and measured service.
The computing capability provides an abstraction between the computing resource and its servers, storage and networks, enabling convenient, on-demand network access to a shared pool of configurable computing resources.
Cloud Calculation provides a similar function to an ammeter and circuit. With an ammeter and a circuit, the need to generate electricity is eliminated, simply install the ammeter and pay accordingly. Similarly, with a gas pipe, the user no longer needs to buy bottled gas but can retrieve it straight from the source.
Today, in order to establish a new company, one is still required to buy the hard and software, including several computers and servers. With the onset of cloud computing, if we look back on this in several years, it will seem silly. In the past, one was required to buy an electricity generator in order to open a factory, but who does that these days?
Such is the new reality brought forth by cloud calculation. I expect the number of cloud service providers in China to double in 2010.
3. Online gaming
Online gaming is a likely suspect, and its no news that the sector is set to boom as 3G takes off in China. In 2010, the sector is expected to grow by 30 percent year-on-year by the most conservative estimates, and within this sector, mobile gaming will be the most dynamic.
The growing prevalence of mobile application stores will lessen the reliance of mobile content providers (CP) on mobile service providers (SPs). Mobile game developers and CPs are becoming desirable partners for a number of industry players, including telecom operators, equipment manufacturers, wireless value-added(WVAS ) SPs and various investors.
The **** gaming industry will further experience an industry wide shift with a growing focus on mobile gaming, similar to when computer games went **** a few years ago.
4. E-commerce
Electronic commerce (e-commerce) is now entering a new stage of development following a decade of rapid growth. The consumer-to-consumer model is currently the mainstream in China, going against a more prevalent trend of business-to-consumer (B2C) in other markets.
B2C is expected to become a more popular model in China in 2010 as an increasing number of well-established traditional enterprises adopt B2C platforms to expand their businesses.
The Internet is now in its third stage of development, in which it is now being introduced to traditional industries, giving birth to an entirely new business model, which poses an existential threat to existing B2C players, organization structures and operational models. The industry may undergo a transformation.
5. Enterprise Internet Solution
As more traditional enterprises undertake Internet operations, a new set of solutions will be needed, especially with the emergence of cloud computing as a major trend.
6. The Hulu.com model
Currently, there are two types of video Web sites. The first are web-based commercial-supported sites which redistribute copyrighted content in partnership with large production companies and broadcasters. Hulu.com follows this model, operating cooperatively with the National Broadcasting Corporation (NBC) Universal and a number of other major American networks. The second type is follows a user based video sharing model, such as YouTube, and is distinguished by original and user generated content.
Video sharing sites have enjoyed rapid growth over the last few years, but the Chinese market landscape was altered at the end of 2009. A number of major sites like Sohu and Ku6 have eliminated the broadcast of pirated videos as copyright disputes dominated industry headlines, signaling a decline in the video sharing model. Web giants like Baidu and NetEase have commenced **** video operations, stressing the distribution of only copyrighted content.
For advertisers, which are subject to penalties if a site is busted for copyright infringement, the first model is much more attractive and Chinese sites following the Hulu model will surely profit.
又见飞刀,并且是一刀切。
今天看到一则新闻,其一刀切的主张很令人诧异。这则新闻是:全国两会召开在即,全国政协委员、陶然居饮食集团董事长严琦语出惊人:关闭所有社会网吧,政府办公共网吧。就这个建议,严琦将在今年全国两会期间提交相关提案。“网吧衍生的各种社会问题,已经成了社会顽疾,针对顽疾,就应该下猛药。”
由此,想到了三国时候的一则故事:
刘备曾经因为天旱而下令禁酒,违犯的人就要受到刑罚。执行命令的官吏在百姓家搜出酿酒的器具,就认为是准备酿酒,与酿酒的人犯同样的罪。昭德将军简雍对此很不以为然。一次,简雍与刘备一同出游,路上看见一男一女同行,就指着对刘备说:“那两个男女要行淫乱,为什么不把他们抓起来呢?”刘备不解,就问:“你是怎么知道他们要行淫乱呢?”简雍回答:“他们有行淫乱的器具,所以有淫乱的条件,就一定会行淫乱。就象家有酿酒器具的人一定要酿酒一样。”刘备会意,哈哈大笑,于是释放了被认为是要酿酒的人。
“网吧”具备有产生社会问题的可能,这大家都承认。但是,有淫乱的器具,就一定会淫乱吗?有产生社会问题的工具,就一定会产生社会问题吗?三国时的古人就已经明白这个道理了。
这种一刀切的做法,流行于上个世纪80年代,当时被认为是官僚主义的思想方法,其含义是不对具体事务作具体的分析,一律同样对待。这样的思想方法对工作带来的损失是很明显的。反对 “一刀切”,就是反对官僚主义的思想方法。
令人遗憾的是,这种思想方法这两年又在抬头。别的不说,单就网吧问题,以及网吧带来的网瘾问题,这种过激的一刀切又在抬头。
早在3年前,山西方山县发动的网吧整治风暴中,该县的7家网吧全部被取缔,从此成为中国第一个开通了网络却没有网吧的县城。在中共方山县委书记张国彪看来:网吧对孩子们的毒害绝不亚于吸毒。据他分析,和城市最大不同在于,贫困地区县级以下人口整体文化素质不高,流动人口也少。在这里,高中以上文化程度的人很少进网吧,去的全是青少年,不是打游戏就是看不健康的东西。
去年,山东冠县几乎所有网吧全部关闭。冠县网络监控负责人称,如果不实现实名制,上网者可以不负责任地随意发表言论,“太乱”。冠县关闭网吧的理由,一是“去网吧的除了孩子就是‘社会闲杂人等’”,二是“现在电脑普及率高了,想上网的在家上就行”。冠县关闭网吧的事迹也是相当感人的,官方的说法那是“牺牲一小部分商人的利益”,换来“绝大部分民众的叫好”,很有点壮士断腕的味道。
如果发现有员工上班时间“偷菜”,就把他立马开除;如果发现城市交通拥挤,就严令私家车不得上路;如果发现有手机黄祸,就关闭所有WAP网站;如果发现互联网带来了很多社会问题,就切断网络;如果发现有腐败的干部,就将所有的干部都关进监狱……
那么,这将是一个什么样的社会?我是不敢往下想了。辩证法早就告诉我们,要一分为二的看问题,这个全国政协委员、陶然居饮食集团董事长严琦需要补补哲学啊……
网吧应该治理,但治理不等于关闭。政府行为和社会行为得分开,各施其责。比如这个网吧,政府可加强管理,而不需要取代主办的主体。政府办所有网吧的提议十分好笑。政府包办一切的社会,必然是个可笑的社会。
如果政府真可以包办一切,首先强烈建议把提案人严琦做董事长的陶然居饮食集团交给政府去办,呵呵。(刘兴亮)